The health care and social assistance industry is projected to have the largest share of new workers by 2028.
Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 51,000 | 57% | 38,900 | 43% | 90,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 219,000 | 60% | 144,000 | 40% | 363,000 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Social assistance services | 32,700 | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Medical and other health care | 27,700 | 22% | 62% | 16% |
Hospitals | 22,100 | 19% | 70% | 11% |
Residential care services | 7,800 | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Aged and disabled carers | 14,800 | Certificate III in Health Services Assistance | ✓ |
Certificate II in Community Services | - | ||
Certificate III in Sterilisation Services | - | ||
Registered nurses | 9,300 | Higher education qualification required | - |
Nursing support and personal care workers | 3,900 | Certificate III in Health Services Assistance | ✓ |
Certificate III in Sterilisation Services | - | ||
Certificate II in Community Services | - | ||
Child carers | 3,800 | Certificate III in Early Childhood Education and Care | ✓ |
Certificate IV in School Based Education Support | ✓ | ||
Certificate III in Health Services Assistance | ✓ | ||
Psychologists | 2,900 | Higher education qualification required | - |
Northern metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Barwon (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for health care and social assistance, by region⁸, from 2025 to 2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | 51,000 | 38,900 | 90,000 | 24% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | 40,900 | 28,500 | 69,000 | 77% |
Northern metropolitan | 8,400 | 5,100 | 13,500 | 19% |
Inner metropolitan | 8,100 | 5,300 | 13,400 | 19% |
Eastern metropolitan | 6,500 | 5,500 | 12,000 | 17% |
Western metropolitan | 7,900 | 3,800 | 11,700 | 17% |
Southern metropolitan | 6,500 | 5,300 | 11,700 | 17% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | 3,500 | 3,500 | 6,900 | 10% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | 10,500 | 10,400 | 21,000 | 23% |
Barwon | 3,400 | 2,500 | 5,800 | 28% |
Gippsland | 1,600 | 1,700 | 3,300 | 16% |
Loddon Campaspe | 1,600 | 1,600 | 3,200 | 15% |
Central Highlands | 1,700 | 1,400 | 3,000 | 15% |
Ovens Murray | 710 | 840 | 1,500 | 7% |
Goulburn | 580 | 790 | 1,400 | 7% |
Great South Coast | 420 | 730 | 1,200 | 6% |
Mallee | 370 | 610 | 980 | 5% |
Wimmera Southern Mallee | 240 | 370 | 610 | 3% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- 77 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Northern metropolitan and Inner metropolitan with the highest share of new workers
- 23 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Barwon and Gippsland with the highest share of new workers.
Updated