Projections of employment growth and retirements provide an estimate of how many workers will enter the labour market and fill jobs.
Employment growth + Retirements = New workers expected
Employment growth
- The projected change in employment between years in an industry, occupation or region.
- Benchmarked to the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance's budget forecasts of total employment and the Victoria in Future population projections.
Retirements
- Refers to the number of workers over 50 years of age projected to leave the workforce based on estimates of retirement rates using linked ATO income tax data and longitudinal census data from the ABS Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA).
- Retirements are included on the basis that they leave positions which will need to be filled.
New workers expected
- New workers expected is an estimate of how many workers will enter the workforce across industries, occupations and regions.
- New workers fill new jobs being created (employment growth) and replace those who leave the workforce (retirements).
The Victorian workforce is expected to add:
- 373,000 new workers over the next 3 years to 2028
- 1,454,000 new workers over the next 10 years to 2035.
Source: Victorian Department of Jobs, Skills, Industry and Regions (DJSIR) and VSA modelling, 2025.
Updated