Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | -1,940 | -36% | 7,400 | 136% | 5,400 |
2025 to 2035 | -3,510 | -17% | 23,700 | 117% | 20,200 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Agriculture | 3,700 | 33% | 16% | 51% |
Agriculture, forestry and | 1,300 | 38% | 18% | 44% |
Forestry and logging | 190 | 38% | 18% | 44% |
Fishing, hunting and trapping | 110 | 38% | 14% | 48% |
Aquaculture | 90 | 24% | 38% | 38% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Livestock farmers | 3,290 | Certificate III in Poultry Production | - |
Certificate II in Beekeeping | - | ||
Mixed crop and livestock farmers | 2,480 | Diploma of Agriculture | - |
Crop farmers | 1,520 | Diploma of Viticulture | - |
Diploma of Agriculture | - | ||
Crop farm workers | 480 | Certificate III in Production Horticulture | ✓ |
| Livestock farm workers | 410 | Certificate IV in Wool Classing | - |
| Certificate III in Racing (Stablehand) | - | ||
| Certificate III in Dairy Production | - |
Northern metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Mallee (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for agriculture, forestry and fishing, by region⁸, from 2025 to 2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | -1,940 | 7,400 | 5,400 | 1% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | -1,860 | 1,600 | -280 | -5% |
Northern metropolitan | -250 | 260 | 10 | -5% |
Eastern metropolitan | -320 | 300 | -10 | 5% |
Southern metropolitan | -680 | 640 | -40 | 13% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | -80 | 30 | -50 | 17% |
Western metropolitan | -310 | 250 | -60 | 21% |
Inner metropolitan | -230 | 90 | -140 | 49% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | -80 | 5,800 | 5,700 | 105% |
Mallee | 180 | 800 | 980 | 17% |
Great South Coast | 60 | 830 | 890 | 16% |
Gippsland | -220 | 1,000 | 820 | 14% |
Goulburn | -90 | 740 | 650 | 11% |
Loddon Campaspe | 30 | 610 | 640 | 11% |
Wimmera Southern Mallee | 80 | 460 | 540 | 9% |
Central Highlands | -20 | 500 | 480 | 8% |
Ovens Murray | -50 | 480 | 420 | 7% |
Barwon | -40 | 310 | 270 | 5% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- -5 per cent of the new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Northern metropolitan and Eastern metropolitan with the highest share of new workers
- 105 per cent of the new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Mallee and Great South Coast with the highest share of new workers.
Updated