The construction industry is projected to have the second largest share of new workers by 2028.
Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 45,300 | 70% | 19,300 | 30% | 65,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 89,000 | 55% | 74,000 | 45% | 162,000 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Building construction | 27,300 | 52% | 21% | 27% |
Construction services | 25,400 | 56% | 9% | 35% |
Heavy and civil engineering | 11,800 | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Carpenters and joiners | 8,340 | Certificate III in Carpentry | - |
Certificate III in Construction Waterproofing | ✓ | ||
Certificate III in Joinery | - | ||
Construction managers | 6,330 | Diploma of Building and Construction (Management) | - |
Plumbers | 4,750 | Certificate III in Plumbing | - |
Certificate III in Construction Waterproofing | ✓ | ||
Certificate III in Air Conditioning and Refrigeration | - | ||
Building and plumbing labourers | 3,720 | Certificate II in Construction Pathways | ✓ |
Certificate II in Civil Construction | - | ||
Painting trades workers | 3,120 | Certificate III in Painting and Decorating | - |
Western metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Barwon (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for construction, by region⁸, from 2025 to 2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | 45,300 | 19,300 | 65,000 | 17% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | 38,600 | 14,600 | 53,000 | 83% |
Western metropolitan | 8,900 | 2,700 | 11,600 | 22% |
Southern metropolitan | 7,700 | 3,600 | 11,400 | 21% |
Northern metropolitan | 7,200 | 2,700 | 9,900 | 19% |
Inner metropolitan | 7,200 | 2,000 | 9,200 | 17% |
Eastern metropolitan | 5,400 | 2,600 | 8,000 | 15% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | 2,200 | 1,000 | 3,200 | 6% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | 6,600 | 4,600 | 11,300 | 17% |
Barwon | 2,400 | 1,100 | 3,400 | 30% |
Gippsland | 920 | 850 | 1,800 | 16% |
Central Highlands | 1,100 | 590 | 1,700 | 15% |
Loddon Campaspe | 930 | 640 | 1,600 | 14% |
Ovens Murray | 450 | 450 | 900 | 8% |
Goulburn | 330 | 370 | 710 | 6% |
Great South Coast | 290 | 290 | 580 | 5% |
Mallee | 170 | 260 | 430 | 4% |
Wimmera Southern Mallee | 90 | 140 | 220 | 2% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- 83 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Western metropolitan and Southern metropolitan with the highest share of new workers
- 17 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Barwon and Gippsland with the highest share of new workers.
Updated