By 2028, 23,200 new workers are expected to enter the retail trade industry.
Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 5,200 | 22% | 18,100 | 78% | 23,200 |
2025 to 2035 | 46,600 | 43% | 62,000 | 57% | 108,000 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Other store-based retailing | 14,400 | 24% | 28% | 48% |
Motor vehicle and motor | 4,200 | 41% | 18% | 41% |
Food retailing | 3,100 | 21% | 18% | 61% |
Non-store retailing and retail | 1,400 | 22% | 51% | 27% |
Fuel retailing | 160 | 21% | 42% | 37% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales assistants (general) | 6,280 | Certificate III in Retail | - |
Retail managers | 2,890 | Certificate III in Retail | - |
Certificate IV in Retail Management | - | ||
Storepersons | 1,550 | No post-school qualification required | - |
Checkout operators and office cashiers | 1,190 | No post-school qualification required | - |
Motor vehicle and vehicle parts salespersons | 670 | Certificate III in Automotive Sales | - |
Western metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Barwon (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for retail trade, by region⁸, from 2025 to 2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | 5,200 | 18,100 | 23,200 | 6% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | 5,600 | 14,200 | 19,800 | 85% |
Western metropolitan | 3,100 | 2,600 | 5,700 | 29% |
Southern metropolitan | 770 | 2,900 | 3,700 | 19% |
Northern metropolitan | 1,200 | 2,200 | 3,400 | 17% |
Inner metropolitan | 670 | 2,300 | 3,000 | 15% |
Eastern metropolitan | 260 | 2,500 | 2,800 | 14% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | -280 | 1,700 | 1,400 | 7% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | -490 | 3,900 | 3,400 | 15% |
Barwon | 270 | 960 | 1,200 | 36% |
Gippsland | -50 | 640 | 590 | 17% |
Loddon Campaspe | -60 | 560 | 500 | 15% |
Central Highlands | 0 | 460 | 450 | 13% |
Ovens Murray | -40 | 340 | 300 | 9% |
Goulburn | -120 | 290 | 180 | 5% |
Great South Coast | -180 | 260 | 70 | 2% |
Mallee | -200 | 250 | 50 | 1% |
Wimmera Southern Mallee | -90 | 110 | 20 | <1% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- 85 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Western metropolitan and Southern metropolitan with the highest share of new workers
- 15 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Barwon and Gippsland with the highest share of new workers.
Updated