By 2028, 19,300 new workers are expected to enter the transport, postal and warehousing industry.
Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 3,400 | 17% | 15,900 | 83% | 19,300 |
2025 to 2035 | 32,100 | 37% | 54,000 | 63% | 86,000 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Road transport | 8,900 | 34% | 19% | 47% |
Postal and courier pick-up and | 3,700 | 25% | 32% | 43% |
Warehousing and storage | 2,400 | 29% | 21% | 50% |
Air and space transport | 2,000 | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Transport support services | 2,000 | 30% | 34% | 36% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Truck drivers | 3,700 | Certificate III in Driving Operations | - |
Certificate IV in Specialist Driving Operations | - | ||
Automobile drivers | 2,650 | No qualification required | - |
Delivery drivers | 1,990 | Certificate II in Automative Vocational Preparation | ✓ |
Certificate III in Driving Operations | - | ||
Certificate IV in Specialist Driving Operations | - | ||
Bus and coach drivers | 980 | Certificate III in Driving Operations | - |
Forklift drivers | 810 | Certificate III in Supply Chain Operations | ✓ |
Western metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Barwon (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for transport, postal and warehousing, by region⁸, from 2025 to 2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | 3,400 | 15,900 | 19,300 | 5% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | 4,400 | 13,200 | 17,600 | 91% |
Western metropolitan | 2,500 | 3,900 | 6,300 | 36% |
Northern metropolitan | 1,600 | 3,100 | 4,700 | 27% |
Southern metropolitan | 450 | 2,400 | 2,800 | 16% |
Inner metropolitan | -110 | 2,300 | 2,200 | 12% |
Eastern metropolitan | 50 | 1,200 | 1,300 | 7% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | -50 | 390 | 340 | 2% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | -1,000 | 2,700 | 1,700 | 9% |
Barwon | -40 | 530 | 480 | 29% |
Loddon Campaspe | 10 | 330 | 340 | 20% |
Central Highlands | 0 | 320 | 310 | 18% |
Gippsland | -150 | 430 | 280 | 17% |
Goulburn | -60 | 240 | 180 | 11% |
Great South Coast | -160 | 210 | 50 | 3% |
Mallee | -160 | 200 | 40 | 2% |
Wimmera Southern Mallee | -80 | 100 | 10 | 1% |
Ovens Murray | -350 | 330 | -20 | -1% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- 91 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Western metropolitan and Northern metropolitan with the highest share of new workers
- 9 per cent of new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Barwon and Loddon Campaspe with the highest share of new workers.
Updated