By 2028, 13,200 new workers are expected to enter the manufacturing industry.
Workforce projections: 3-year and 10-year outlook
Workforce projections – industry
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | -4,970 | -38% | 18,100 | 138% | 13,200 |
2025 to 2035 | -6,790 | -13% | 59,000 | 113% | 52,000 |
Workforce projections – Victoria
Time period | Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Share | No. | Share | ||
2025 to 2028 | 143,000 | 38% | 230,000 | 62% | 373,000 |
2025 to 2035 | 650,000 | 45% | 804,000 | 55% | 1,454,000 |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
New workers expected⁵ by industry subdivision from 2025 to 2028
Industry subdivision | Number of workers | VET | Higher education | No post-school qualifications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-metallic mineral product | 2,900 | 36% | 20% | 44% |
Fabricated metal product | 2,000 | 41% | 17% | 42% |
Machinery and equipment | 1,600 | 40% | 34% | 26% |
Wood product manufacturing | 1,600 | 45% | 12% | 43% |
Printing (including the | 1,500 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Occupations with high new workers expected⁵ with direct TAFE study pathways⁶ from 2025 to 2028
Occupation | New workers expected5 | TAFE pathways into occupation6 | Available under Free TAFE7 |
|---|---|---|---|
Product assemblers | 1,040 | Certificate II in Furniture Making Pathways | - |
Certificate II in Cabinet Making and Timber Technology | ✓ | ||
Certificate II in Furnishing | - | ||
Food and drink factory workers | 1,000 | Certificate II in Food Processing | - |
Certificate I in Food Processing | - | ||
Certificate III in Meat Processing (Smallgoods - General) | - | ||
Metal fitters and machinists | 910 | Certificate III in Engineering - Mechanical Trade | - |
Packers | 900 | Certificate III in Meat Processing (Food Services) | - |
Certificate II in Meat Processing (Food Services) | - | ||
Certificate II in Meat Processing (Abattoirs) | - | ||
Structural steel and welding trades workers | 770 | Certificate III in Engineering - Fabrication Trade | - |
Certificate IV in Process Manufacturing | - | ||
Certificate III in Civil Construction Plant Operations | ✓ |
Southern Metropolitan (within metropolitan Melbourne) and Barwon (within regional Victoria) are expecting the highest share of new workers
New workers expected⁵ for manufacturing, by region⁸, 2025-2028
New workers expected – industry
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry | -4,970 | 18,100 | 13,200 | 4% |
New workers expected – Metropolitan Melbourne
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metropolitan Melbourne | -2,870 | 14,300 | 11,400 | 87% |
Southern metropolitan | -830 | 4,200 | 3,400 | 30% |
Western metropolitan | 520 | 2,400 | 2,900 | 25% |
Northern metropolitan | -330 | 3,000 | 2,700 | 23% |
Eastern metropolitan | -1,260 | 3,000 | 1,700 | 15% |
Inner metropolitan | -670 | 1,300 | 630 | 6% |
Inner south-east metropolitan | -280 | 400 | 120 | 1% |
New workers expected – Regional Victoria
| Employment growth | Retirements | New workers expected 2028 | Share of total new workers expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Victoria | -2,100 | 3,800 | 1,700 | 13% |
Barwon | -260 | 800 | 540 | 31% |
Loddon Campaspe | -370 | 670 | 300 | 17% |
Central Highlands | -160 | 450 | 290 | 17% |
Ovens Murray | -290 | 460 | 170 | 10% |
Gippsland | -410 | 540 | 130 | 8% |
Goulburn | -250 | 380 | 130 | 7% |
Great South Coast | -190 | 280 | 80 | 5% |
Mallee | -90 | 170 | 80 | 5% |
| Wimmera Southern Mallee | -80 | 90 | 20 | 1% |
Note: Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding.
- 87 per cent of the new workers expected for the industry will be located within metropolitan Melbourne, with Southern metropolitan and Western metropolitan with the highest share of new workers.
- 13 per cent of the new workers expected for the industry will be located within regional Victoria, with Barwon and Loddon Campaspe with the highest share of new workers.
Updated