Over 350,000 new workers by 2026
Around 352,000 new workers are expected to enter the labour market in Victoria by 2026. This includes 137,000 workers to fill new jobs and 215,000 workers to replace those retiring (this is an estimate of demand for workers and is not an indicator of workforce or skill shortage). Of these new workers, 277,000 (78.6%) are expected in metropolitan Melbourne and 75,000 (21.4%) in regional Victoria.10 The 352,000 new workers expected represents demand across industries, occupations and regions that is expected to be met by the supply of workers through various channels, including workers from overseas, new entrants to employment after school or post-secondary education, unemployment, people entering the labour market such as parents who previously had full-time care responsibilities, and job mobility.
These numbers are lower than the expected 373,000 new workers estimated in the 2022 State of the Victorian Labour Market report. This year’s lower forecasts account for the softer economic outlook in Australia which impacts the number of new workers needed in the near future – rising interest rates, higher cost of living, and a weaker global economic outlook. This year’s employment forecasts are based on a new model (see Appendix A(opens in a new window) for further details).
Victoria needs a skilled workforce to meet its future employment needs and an increasing proportion of this workforce will need to be highly skilled.
Under the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO), each occupation is assigned a skill level between 1 and 5 which corresponds to a certain level of qualification attainment and, or experience.11
Qualifications required for each skill level
Higher order skills
Skill level 1
- A bachelor degree or higher.
Skill level 2
- An associate degree, advanced diploma or diploma.
Skill level 3
- Certificate III (including at least two years of on-the-job training) or Certificate IV.
Other skills
Skill level 4
- Certificate II or III.
Skill level 5
- Certificate I or compulsory secondary education.
Notes
10 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, May 2023.
11 Experience may substitute for formal qualification, or in other cases relevant experience may be required in addition to the formal qualification.
Updated