New workers over the next three years

New workers expected by skills level 2023 to 2026.

The industries expecting the highest number of new workers over the next three years – health care and social assistance; education and training; and professional, scientific and technical services – require a significant proportion of workers with higher-order skills.

All other industries – apart from accommodation and food services; transport, postal and warehousing; retail trade; and administrative and support services – also have a greater demand for workers with higher-order skills than other skills.

These trends do not fully reflect the transformation to jobs and work in some industries. Warehousing, for example, is becoming increasingly automated. Automation will change the nature of some existing jobs and create new ones that require higher-order skills.

These figures demonstrate the extent of change across the economy and the need for education and training responses to keep pace. Adapting on a case-by-case approach by occupation or industry is not the best response. Education and training must build a strong base of knowledge and skills that allow for entry to good jobs and also equip workers to move to new work opportunities at the same or higher skill level. The knowledge and skills in occupations supporting automation apply across many industries and contexts. Vocational education and training (VET) qualifications, in responding to this new demand, need to be based on in-depth knowledge and skills that are applicable to many contexts. The Victorian TAFE Network will play a critical role in this.

New workers expected by skills level 2023 to 2026

The number of new workers required at skill level 1 is 159,200, at skill level 2 is 36,300, at skill level 3 is 30,900, at skill level 4 is 91,000 and at skill level 5 is 34,800.

New workers expected by industry 2023 to 2026

The expected number of new workers required in each industry is:

  • health care and social assistance, 83,300 (60.7% with higher-order skills)
  • education and training, 46,400 (82.9% with higher-order skills)
  • professional, scientific and technical services, 35,000 (93.5% with higher-order skills
  • accommodation and food services, 32,300 (38.7% with higher-order skills)
  • manufacturing, 24,800 (63.5% with higher-order skills)
  • transport, postal and warehousing, 22,700 (29.4% with higher-order skills)
  • public administration and safety, 18,000 (65% with higher-order skills)
  • construction, 17,400 (75.5% with higher-order skills)
  • retail trade, 11,700 (39.1% with higher-order skills)
  • financial and insurance services, 10,500 (85.1% with higher-order skills)
  • administrative and support services, 10,000 (39.4% with higher-order skills)
  • wholesale trade, 8300 (53.2% with higher-order skills)
  • other services, 6,500 (65.5% with higher-order skills)
  • rental, hiring and real estate services, 5,800 (78.9% with higher-order skills)
  • arts and recreation services, 5,700 ( 63.1% with higher-order skills)
  • agriculture, forestry and fishing, 5,600 (73.3% with higher-order skills)
  • information media and telecommunications, 4,000 (88.1% with higher-order skills)
  • electricity, gas, water and waste services, 3,600 (70.7% with higher-order skills)
  • mining, 700 (67.1% with higher-order skills).

Note: new workers expected by skill level are derived based on 4-digit ANZSCO occupation forecasts from the Victorian Skills Authority. For 22 of the 358 4-digit ANZSCO occupations that had more than one skill level, skill levels were assigned based on the predominant skill level of the occupation at the aggregate level. New workers expected represents employment growth plus workers needed to replace retirements. Proportion of higher-order and other skills sum to 100%.

The health care and social assistance; education and training; professional, scientific and technical services; and accommodation and food services industries are expecting the majority of new workers over the next three years.

Workforce growth in these industries is driven by multiple factors. The health care and social assistance, and education and training industries are growing because of government investment (for example, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, aged care services, and the Best Start, Best Life initiative) whereas the professional, scientific and technical services industry is growing as a result of improvements in existing business models due to advances in technology, and the accommodation and food services industry because of the post COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

Occupations in demand vary significantly across each industry, though some appear in more than one industry, such as sales assistants (general), truck drivers, storepersons, metal fitters and machinists, and software and applications programmers.