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Figure 1B Methodology overview is available as a flow chart on page 13 of the downloadable report below.

The flow-chart overviews the methodology for the Panel’s fire risk assessment. It starts with the different types of data (fire incident, fire incident response time and fire incident casualties) which are input into a range of analyses. Fire incident data is input into spatial analysis, Markov Chain Estimation, regression, and temporal analysis.

Fire incident response time data and fire incident casualty data are input into spatial and temporal analysis only. The spatial analysis produces a state-wide spatial pattern of fire, response time or casualty, depending on the input. The Markov Chain Estimation produces a state-wide probability of fire. The regression analysis uncovers the drivers of fire across the state. The temporal analysis presents the distribution of fire incidents, casualties and response times across:

  • the 10 year period 2010-2019,
  • monthly from January to December
  • daily from Monday – Sunday
  • Hourly from 12am to 12pm.

All output except the temporal output is subsequently input in a Decision Support Analysis.

There is subsequently a period of up to 12 months for CFA response to the output of the Decision Support Analysis, after which, a range of spatial layers will be overlaid, including population and land use projections, prevention and preparedness data, bushfire risk, hydrant distribution and CFA adjustments, in order to inform the adjustment of the FRV district boundaries.

Reviewed 13 December 2022

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