The Victorian outlook remains positive

Key Victorian labour market statistics.

Victorian labour market growth

The Victorian labour market continues to grow, with 146,500 jobs created over the past year to May 2023 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia(opens in a new window), May 2023). The unemployment rate remains low at 3.7% while the proportion of people employed or actively looking for employment is near record highs at 67.6% (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia(opens in a new window), May 2023).

Around 352,000 new workers are expected to enter the Victorian economy between 2023 and 2026.* This includes 137,000 for new jobs and 215,000 replacing retiring workers (new jobs, retirements and new workers expected represent changes over the 2023 and 2026 calendar years. The Victorian Skills Authority has changed its forecasting methodology. This year’s employment forecasts rely on the Victoria University Employment forecasting model, which can incorporate the effects of current and future government expenditure on specific industries and regions).

Around 277,000 new workers are expected in metropolitan Melbourne and 75,000 are expected in regional Victoria.

As with the rest of the country, the trajectory of new workers expected in the next few years is influenced by rising interest rates, higher cost of living and a weaker global economic outlook. Impacts vary across Victoria’s industries, occupations and regions.

The demand for new workers can be met through improved education and training, strategic use of overseas migration and getting more people into work.

A detailed analysis of employment trends in Victoria is provided in the State of the Victorian Labour Market Report and the Employment Forecast Dashboard which accompany this Victorian Skills Plan.

It is expected that 352,000 new workers will be needed in Victoria over the next three years to 2026 to meet growing demand and replace retirees.

The Victorian labour market currently has:

There are 219,000 people unemployed (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia(opens in a new window), May 2023) who wanted to work an additional 2,623,900 hours in the quarter, which is equivalent to 6000 people (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed(opens in a new window), May 2023).

358,400 people are not in the labour force who want work and 204,100 of these people could start work within four weeks (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Potential Workers(opens in a new window), February 2023).

There are 1.3 unemployed persons for each job vacancy (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Job vacancies, Australia(opens in a new window), May 2023).

Notes:

*This is an estimate of demand for workers and is not an indicator of workforce or skills shortages.

Updated