Appendix A: Theoretical risk overview

Risk is the likelihood of damage/loss from the hazard, integrated across the entire spectrum of possible events:

Risk= f( likelihood, impact)

Impact or consequence is based on the interaction of the fire characteristics and the vulnerability of the asset to fire.

Impact= f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability)

The direct impact of the event is calculated from the costs modelled across all exposures during the event. If we examine the elements of impact:

  • Hazard is a physical situation with a potential for undesirable consequences to people, property or the environment. It refers to the fire, accident or incident that the fire service is responding to.
  • Exposure refers to what elements are at risk (people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture etc.)
  • Vulnerability refers to how each exposed element responds to the level of hazard. Vulnerability can be divided into four main areas: physical, social, economic and system.